 path edu!rochest!galileo cc rochest edu!ub!zaphod mp ohio-state edu!usc!sdd hp com!sgiblab!pacbel com!amdahl!netcomsv!netcom com!rudi from rudi netcom rudi wade newsgroup rec sport basebal subject re base load walk red win 12 messag-id date 23 apr 93 20 49 02 gmt refer 1993apr23 120044 15627 cornel 1993apr23 185931 6509 cornel organ home brave line 113 in articl 1993apr23 185931 6509 cornel tedward cornel edward ted fischer write in articl mss netcom mark singer write quot futur refer consist overal perform l r split match hit pitch style all advantag properli predict futur ab he predict sabo hit samuel he believ thing 1 sabo samuel hit or 2 good long leav sabo expect actual outcom in fact perez mind left sabo by support swap predict opposit in fact claim predict futur futur event but trend identifi continu and dismiss work i'm state opinion you work render opinion contrari invalid retent opinion kind insult work well you awar exist you claim incap understand suspect simpli unwil yet forcefulli opposit you work worth read feel topic i'd insult insult peopl's opinion kind silli after mark call total idiot call work stupid simpli state chang opinion subject consist skill indic perform set circumst right! thi beef it proven indic futur perform circumst at if indic futur perform secret if player a hit better tuesdai mark believ indic hit tuesdai better season well respond wai? at point admit variabl gui mondai night? mayb see sport shrink tuesdai morn vitamin b shot mondai night? but true gui it meaning correl entir leagu dai week but predict base player season's chri sabo's bat averag clutch situat lower bat averag non-clutch situat prove happen guess wait is simpli predict chri sabo year? or predict batter year hit xxx amount? wors clutch overal? predict player all batter here's in 1989 - 1991 joe carter's bat averag clutch situat bat averag non-clutch situat year presum random i'm go case analysi sure find hit '89-'91 hit '92 well you find hit '89-'91 hit well '92 that's exactli mark find hitter correl predict hitter base perform major leagu ballplay it 1993 joe carter's bat averag clutch go high ba non-clutch situat gambler's fallaci unless reason expect consist huh? what gambler's fallaci anyth? whether reason correl deni exist argument continu exist reason exist prove can reason expect clutch ba correl year next? i've detail studi someon post neg clutch correl the argument line star player l r split advers condit late in close game oppos manag bring ah pitcher face manag pull ph deni as total idiot ? ye if prove unwil consid evid wrong term fit nice so me? doe term fit? or open mind? what you? if shoe fit wear open mind? rudi 